The Private and External Costs of Germany’s Nuclear Phase-Out

Abstract Many countries have phased out nuclear power in response to concerns about waste and the risk of accidents. This paper examines shutdown more than half production capacity Germany after Fukushima accident 2011. We use hourly data on plant operations a machine learning approach estimate impacts phase-out policy. find that reductions electricity were offset primarily by increases coal-fired net imports. Our estimates social cost range from €3 €8 billion per year. The majority this comes increased mortality associated with exposure local air pollution emitted when burning fossil fuels. Policymakers would significantly overestimate or conclude benefits exceed its costs. discuss likely role behavioral biases setting, highlight importance ensuring policymakers public are informed health effects pollution.